GREENPEACE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

TERMS OF REFERENCE

Regional Impact and Contribution Assessment of Greenpeace MENA s Work Since 2019

• Focus countries: United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon
• Consultancy assignment: Commissioning organisation Greenpeace Middle East and North Africa (Greenpeace MENA)
• Assignment period: [To be confirmed]
• Level of effort: [To be proposed by the consultant]
• Geographic scope: MENA region, with more focused analysis of the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon
• Assessment period: 2019 to the date of commencement of the consultancy
• Reporting to: [Executive Director / designated project lead]

Since 2019, Greenpeace MENA has sought to advance climate justice and accelerate a fair energy transition across the Middle East and North Africa. Its work has combined public campaigning, policy engagement, movement building, youth mobilisation, strategic communications, research, coalition-building and regional narrative change.

Over the same period, the region has experienced important changes in climate policy, renewable energy deployment, public awareness, youth engagement and economic transition. These shifts have not resulted from the work of any single actor. They have been shaped by governments, civil society, social movements, researchers, communities, multilateral processes, market forces and geopolitical developments.

Greenpeace MENA therefore wishes to commission an independent regional assessment that documents progress since 2019 and examines the organisation s contribution to that progress where credible evidence exists. The assessment should avoid simplistic or unsupported attribution. Instead, it should use a theory-of-contribution approach that distinguishes between changes directly influenced by Greenpeace MENA, changes to which Greenpeace MENA plausibly contributed alongside others, and wider contextual developments that are relevant to the organisation s mission but cannot reasonably be linked to its work.

The assessment is intended to generate a credible evidence base for strategic learning, accountability, communications, fundraising and future programme design. It should also identify where progress has been limited, uneven or reversible, and where Greenpeace MENA may need to adapt its strategy to increase impact.

The purpose of the consultancy is to assess and document the evolution of climate action, climate justice, renewable energy, economic transition and climate movement-building in the region since 2019, with particular focus on the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon, and to analyse Greenpeace MENA s contribution to these changes wherever this can be credibly demonstrated.

The consultancy should produce both a regional narrative and country-level evidence. It should capture formal policy change as well as shifts in public discourse, civil society capacity, youth leadership, coalition strength, political salience and the connection between climate issues and people s daily lives.

• Document major changes since 2019 in climate policy, renewable energy policy, implementation, investment and deployment across the five focus countries.
• Assess progress in climate justice policies, decisions, public debate and institutional practice, including equity, participation, adaptation, loss and damage, just transition and protection of affected communities.
• Analyse the evolution, reach, diversity and influence of the regional climate movement, with a particular focus on youth-led climate action and the leadership of young people from the region.
• Examine the extent to which climate issues have become more connected to people s daily concerns, including energy affordability, electricity access, air pollution, public health, livelihoods, food and water security, dignity, economic opportunity and social justice.
• Assess economic diversification and energy transition developments in the UAE, including progress, limitations and contradictions in moving away from fossil-fuel dependence and expanding renewable energy and other low-carbon sectors.
• Identify outcomes and changes to which Greenpeace MENA directly contributed or plausibly contributed, and clearly distinguish these from broader changes for which no contribution can be demonstrated.
• Generate lessons and recommendations to strengthen Greenpeace MENA s future strategy, country engagement, movement-building, policy influence, communications and impact measurement.

Geographic scope: The assessment will cover the Middle East and North Africa region, with detailed analysis of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon. Regional developments, institutions and networks should be included where they materially affect the five-country analysis.

Assessment period: From January 2019 to the date of commencement of the consultancy. The consultant may reference earlier developments where needed to establish a baseline or explain the significance of later changes.